Super Tuesday or The Road to Texas

Mar 6, 2012 by

Super Tuesday or The Road to Texas

Eleven states are voting today. There are 437 delegates that are up for grabs. The question is where that leaves the Republicans the morning after; most likely where they were on Monday but with fewer delegates to award.


Alaska    27 W
Georgia 76 WD2SP
Idaho    32 C
Massachusetts 41 P
North Dakota 28 C
Ohio 66 WDS
Oklahoma 43 WDS
Tennessee 58 WMDSP
Vermont      17 WDSP
Virginia 49 WDSP
Total     437

According to AP four of the delegates have already committed; 3 in Massachusetts to Mitt Romney and 1 in Oklahoma to Ron Paul. If you remove the non-bound delegates that from the 437 total that will leave you with 407 delegates or 17.8% of the total

(Massachusetts) P:  Is a Proportional Primary

(Idaho, North Dakota) C:  Is a Caucus and/or Convention

(Alaska) W:  Is a Winner-Take-All

(Ohio, Oklahoma) WDS:  Is a Winner-Take-All of the Congressional District and Statewide

(Georgia) WD2SP:  Is a Winner-Take-All of the Congressional District unless the top vote getter is less than 50%+1 vote, if that is the case the top 2 vote getters split the delegates. Statewide delegates are proportional.

(Tennessee) WMDSP:  Winner must receive a majority in a district for winner-take-all, otherwise it is proportional. Statewide is winner-take-all.

(Vermont, Virginia ) WDSP:  Winner must receive a majority Statewide for winner-take-all, otherwise it is proportional. Districts are winner-take-all.


Virginia is the only state where only 2 of the major candidates will appear on the ballot. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney will have the ballot all to themselves. With only two candidates this becomes a winner take all.

Georgia being the home state of Newt Gingrich and Massachusetts that of Mitt Romney should tilt to those candidates.

Idaho and North Dakota should be the most fun of the night and on into tomorrow. If you have seen Republican Delegate Count, Counting you will understand whichever way they go Tuesday night could well be in question.

If you look at the number delegates that the candidates presently have (these are at best estimated) you are looking at a range:

Candidate High Count Low Count
Newt Gingrich 49 33
Ron Paul 51 25
Mitt Romney 203 178
Rick Santorum 92 75

By Tuesday of next week there will have been another 200 plus delegates put in play. If Newt Gingrich takes Georgia he will be in though April at least. Rick Santorum will stay the course if he picks up at least 50. Ron Paul is in to Tampa. Texas does not come around until April the 3rd, and that is the big prize. If there is no clear winner of Delegates, we are on the road to Texas.

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