Electoral College May 2011

Jun 1, 2011 by Editor Fred D

It may seem to be a little early to start looking at voting in November 2012; but you should expect that the parties are looking and planning for that date. They have to hit a target of estimated voters that turn out and vote.

A basic view will work something like this: they will work up an estimated number of actual votes that will be cast. They will look at the number of expected voters from both parties, this is the hard number of their voters that will turn out and vote for their nominee, regardless of whom they put up, this is the bottom line guarantee party-line voter from each party. They will estimate the numbers of other registered voters that will turn out from each party and how they will vote; candidate A, B, or C. They will estimate the number of new voters that will register during the election season.

At that point they will calculate the number of new voters that need be registered and turned out to vote so they are able to win. The parties may even get local precincts or voter groups to compete to register the needed voters.

In January 2009 when the Electoral College vote was officially counted the numbers were 365 votes for Obama and 175 votes for McCain. If you impose the reapportioned number for the 2012 election it becomes Obama 359 – McCain 179. It is only 6 votes but when you look at the toss-up states it makes a big difference.

Democrat safe, likely and lean votes are 212

Safe Dem votes: California 55, Connecticut 7, Delaware 3, D. C. 3, Hawaii 4, Illinois 20, Maryland 10, Massachusetts 11, New York 29, Rhode Island 4, Vermont 3 (149 votes)
Likely Dem votes: Oregon 7, Washington 12 (19 votes)
Lean Dem votes: Minnesota 10, New Jersey 14, Pennsylvania 20 (44 votes)

Toss up votes: Colorado 9, Florida 29, Iowa 6, Maine 4, Michigan 16, Nevada 6, New Hampshire 4, New Mexico 5, Ohio 18, Oklahoma 7, South Carolina 9, South Dakota 3, Tennessee 11, Wisconsin 10 (137 votes)

Republican safe, likely and lean votes equal 189

Lean GOP votes: Missouri 10, North Carolina 15, Virginia 13 (38 votes)
Likely GOP votes: Indiana 11, Nebraska 5 (12 votes)
Safe GOP votes: Alabama 9, Alaska 3, Arizona 11, Arkansas 6, Georgia 16, Idaho 4, Kansas 6, Kentucky 8, Louisiana 8, Mississippi 6, Montana 3, Nebraska 5, North Dakota 3, Texas 38, Utah 6, West Virginia 5, Wyoming 3 (26 votes)

The magic number to win is 270.